After my Sub 3 video, nearly 100 of you put your times in the comments and asked pretty much the same thing: what should I actually be aiming for? So I’ve made a video that answers it properly. It covers the same three tests I use with the runners I coach, for four targets: 3:30, 3:15, sub 3 and 2:45.

The first test is the race ladder. It’s based on a half marathon or 10K you’ve raced in the last 3 months. For sub 3, for example, that’s a half in 1:26:00 or a 10K in 39:08. The second is a goal pace long run: 18 miles with the last 10 at your goal pace and your heart rate staying steady. A few beats of drift is a pass. If it’s drifted 10 to 15 beats and you’re hanging on, you’re not quite there yet. The third is consistency. Did you hit 10 of your last 12 weeks? They don’t need to be perfect weeks, just the week you planned, done.

Score yourself out of 3. Three out of 3, go for it. Two out of 3, go for it, but run the first half 30 seconds to a minute slow. One or none, drop a row, and that’s a PB you’ll actually run. One thing I’ll say here is don’t pick your marathon target from your 5K. It’s like running 100 metres and thinking it converts into a marathon. Trust your half.

I’ve put a few examples in the video too. Lee passed all 3 and ran 2:49:17 on his debut at Chester. Scott had missed sub 3 more than once, passed all 3, then ran 2:59:18 at Manchester. And for me, it was a 69:51 half at Retford, then 2:24:35 at London 6 weeks later.

Watch the video in full, find your row, then drop your half time and your target in the comments. I’ll tell you which row you’re in, and I’ll reply to every one. Just keep running.

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